Election Priorities for the 2022 Midterms
Using election forecasts to find places to focus effort this fall.
Hello, I'm Phil Thomas. This is my blog where I write about subjects ranging from economics and public health to my most recent programming projects. Feel free to explore the site and comment! —about, blog
2022
2021
How did my election model perform?
Evaluating the different sources of error in my 2020 elections model
2020
Combining the 2020 Election Forecasts
I combine forecasts for federal and state elections to find strategic places to focus in 2020.
What's the probability a person has Covid-19?
I use a model of estimated infections to calculate infection probabilities.
Visualizing the Covid-19 Pandemic
I make a few visualizations that I think are missing from the conversation so far.
2019
Working with Synthetic Populations in PostGIS
I use PostGIS to do some spatial queries on a synthetic population of the US.
One Election Visualization to Rule Them All
Visualizing voter turnout and margins by subgroup over the past ten years.
Where will voters have the most political influence in 2020?
It looks like North Carolina will be pretty important in this election.
Where do voters have the most political influence?
Combining state and federal election results to find where voters are especially influential.
2018
Economic Convergence and the Great Recession
Looking at the cross country growth convergence data in light of the great recession.
Network Models for Thinking About the World
I build a few interactive visualizations to communicate the concepts behind network models.
The Social Returns to Risk Taking
A meta-analysis looking at the relationship between intervention uncertainty and impact.
Voting Power, Turnout, and Persuasion in Presidential Elections
I use the voting power index to find counties that are especially powerful in general elections.
Privacy With Google Analytics
I manually build analytics requests for better page speed and more privacy.
A Simple, Stateless Password Manager
A new project that uses a tabula recta to create and store passwords.
2017
Are there returns to risk taking in science, philanthropy, or public policy?
I look at the relationship between risk and expected return in a number of datasets.
Version Control with Jupyter Notebooks
I demonstrate a technique for easily using version control along with Jupyter Notebooks.
Generating Correlated Random Numbers in JavaScript
I show a way to draw numbers from arbitrary joint probability distributions.
My Mental Model of the World
A model and d3.js visualization to communicate my thoughts about how the world works.
Visualizing Voter Turnout and Margins by County, 2004 to 2020
An interactive, draggable visualization showing turnout, party margins and more.
Women's March and Tea Party, by the Numbers
I compare the turnout for the Women's March and Tea Party by city and state.
Democratic Prospects for the 2018 Midterm
I look at potentially close seats in the House and Senate for 2018.
2016
An Interactive Visualization for the Wisconsin Election Results
I build an interactive bubble chart to show trends in the 2000-2016 election results by county.
Visualizing the Presidential Election Results
I look at a few graphics showing the election results and build a few of my own.
Social Services Spending and Health Outcomes Across the OECD
I take a look at the relationship between social services spending, health spending and DALY burdens across the OECD.
Creating a Climate Change Visualization Using D3.js
I re-create the polar climate change visualization that went viral using d3.js.
Easy Stacked Charts with Matplotlib and Pandas
I show a technique for making a stacked chart using the Pandas pivot function
Potential Additions to the Global Burden of Disease Study
I look at the potential impact of including pandemic disease and a longer life expectancy into the GBD estimates.
IGM Experts Panel: Individual Characteristics
Looking at the relationship between individual characteristics and the responses for the economics expert panel
Exploring the IGM Experts Panel Data: Confidence and Consensus
I explore the data from the economics expert panel, focusing on the confidence and consensus among the responses.
Check Your Email Via Text Message
An application for checking Gmail via SMS message, built with Python and Twilio
Learning D3.js
A few tips on some difficult D3.js concepts
The Topography of Mount Stupid
Weighing the costs and benefits of blogging
Ground Rules
A few ground rules for the blog before getting started